My Election Prediction

Don't get me wrong, I am nervous as all get out in this election. I find it unbelievable that this election is so closely contested. Alas alack.

But I have been following this very closely, I have read the internals on every poll, I have read every article discussing the internals of every poll, and I have my own sense of where things are. I will not bore you with the details of all of my analysis and thinking, but I think I can distill it into a few bullet points.

There is every indication that Republican voter enthusiasm nationally and even in Ohio is up and Democrat enthusiasm down. I think that will negate much the edge that Democrats enjoyed last time around and I expect that Republicans will come close to nullifying that advantage altogether.

So with base turnout a wash, it comes down to independents. In just about every poll for the last month, even the ones that show Obama ahead, show Romney leading among independents and not by just a little. On average Romney's advantage among I's has been 8-11%. This is enough to give Romney a win even with a D+ turnout.

And lastly, the incumbent Obama has been at 47-48% in almost all the polls. This is likely close to the number that he will get on election day. My guess is that Obama comes away with 48.5% of the vote.

So at the end of the day I think that Romney wins R 51% - O 48.5% and that Ohio will mirror this national number.

Electorally that is enough but I also think that Wisconsin is a tossup, Iowa is a longshot, and that Michigan and Pennsylvania are a pipe dream.



*subhead*And the winner is...*subhead*

Comments

  1. Good enough for me, as long as Romney pulls it out. Although I'm more optimistic about WI than you

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  2. From your mouth to God's ears. Please Lord, let it be so. Amen.

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  3. I also agree with your judgement, but also think Dave is right about Wisconsin - I think R/R will win it. The fact that it's even this close is a very sad statement about the people.

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  4. May God bless your prediction. Four more years with Obama will be terrible not only to the US.

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  5. I was making calls for Romney today, and found that being Catholic has become something to be treated with deep respect among non-Catholic political volunteers. I'm far more hopeful. Pray, fast and pray some more. And in honor of our religious freedom, make your one big meal a ham sandwich. ;)

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  6. I think Wisconsin will go Obama by at least a couple points but Thompson will likely pick up a GOP seat for senate.

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  7. A lot of folks just don't get it. Obama is going to be re-elected. This is the unfortunate reality that folks here just won't accept. There are numerous considerations:

    1) Despite any advantage that some polls have recently shown for Romney, the polls are still pretty much a dead heat at the end of the day.

    2) Despite any advantage that some polls have recently shown for Romney, the momentum is in favor of Obama, as he has recently gained in the polls.

    3) Despite any advantage that some polls have recently shown for Romney, these pertain to the popular vote, which is not what matters. The electoral vote, which will actually determine who wins, favors Obama.

    4) Even if Romney did somehow manage to eek out a slight edge in the electoral vote, this doesn't take into account voting fraud, which would still give Obama the win.

    5) The media will pull out all the stops up through the election to ensure an Obama victory.

    6) There is certain to be bogus "good news" between now and the election to help Obama, such as today's employment report, which conveniently showed a good figure for Obama (as it conveniently did last month).

    7) There is also likely to be convenient "bad news" to hurt Romney, so don't be surprised to see some kind of anti-Romney bombshell that the Obama campaign / media drops over the next few days.

    8) There is simply no telling what underhanded and unethical strategies the Obama camp will use in their win-at-all-costs mission. For example, in 2009, Jon Corzine's campaign stooped so low that in the final days before the NJ gubernatorial election, when it was known that Chris Christie had the edge, they actually contacted people pretending to be from a third-party group and tried to convince them to vote for a third party, figuring it would take more votes from Christie than Corzine. The Obama campaign will likely be even worse.

    9) The country is simply too far gone and there are simply too many people who expect to be provided for via the government, and simply too many voters who are dumb, uneducated, who vote based on emotions rather than logic, etc. This all favors Obama.

    10) Once again, the GOP rammed yet another lame, establishment, status quo, big government neocon down our throats instead of a good candidate. This will contribute to another loss to the Democrats, which is especially pathetic given that we currently have one of the worst presidents in American history.

    That about sum it up?

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  8. I agree with Annonymus. I think Obama is going to win, helped by the lamestream media and his cronies in the goverment manipulating facts.

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  9. @Most recent anonymous: You severely undercut your analysis when you refer to Mitt Romney—who has criticized Obama for violating the sovereignty of Pakistan, as if that failed-state had a real claim to sovereignty—as a neocon. You do know "neocon" refers, exclusively, to a foreign-policy position? A position to which Romney does not subscribe. I don't know about you but I don't incline to trust the analysis of people who show such basic ignorance of candidates' positions.

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  10. Please, Holy Spirit, inspire the hearts of America to vote for Romney/Ryan!

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  11. I just hope the Lord keeps us from getting the president we deserve.

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  12. Patrick, the majority of the polls are skewed to reflect the large democratic turnout from the 2008 election. Not sure if it was Huckabee, Krauthammer or one of the other Fox hosts but one of them made a very astute observation and comment, this week. He said the polls do not reflect the Evangelical voters! He then explained that Evangelicals are not considered a 'block' since they are 'value' voters who show up in large numbers when they feel the values they cherish are being challenged. He used the 2010 election to cite statistics on Evangelical voter turnout. That turnout among conservative people of faith was a 5 percent increase in evangelical turnout over 2006 and was the largest ever recorded in a midterm election. That was for a midterm election; this one, is presidential. Any Evangelical who watched the 2012 Democratic Convention, will be at the polls on Tuesday!

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  13. My election prediction:
    http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bgQW

    I think Romney even takes Oregon, but not New Mexico.

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  14. Obama is advertising in MN, a state that has voted for D's in all but 3 elections since 1932. MN liked IKE and Nixon.

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  15. Obama is advertising in MN, a state that has voted for D's in all but 3 elections since 1932. MN liked IKE and Nixon.

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